A surge is a property of a window, never of a moment. Nothing in a single transaction says a spike is happening; the spike exists only once a stretch of time is compared against the stretch before it. That is why every note in this section starts by fixing a window and stating what it is being compared with.
The notes here deal with the shape of the event itself. What counts as a spike, which fields separate the six classes, and what the awkward combination of heavy turnover and an unmoving price actually requires. The mechanisms behind a surge, and what to do while one is still running, belong to the Causes section.
What a spike is, how it is classified, and the one divergence that separates a surge in turnover from a surge in demand. These notes describe the shape of the event itself.
A spike is a question, not an answer. The six classes a Solana volume surge can belong to, the eight fields that separate them, and why the frequency of each class is unknown to this desk.
Open the watch noteThe classification sequence itself: which question is asked first, why the cheap tests run before the expensive ones, and how a class is written down together with the finding that would overturn it.
Open the watch noteTurnover rising while price and depth stay where they were. What that combination mechanically requires, the four ordinary explanations for it, and the mirror case of price moving on almost no volume.
Open the watch noteDescribing the shape of an event is the tractable half of the problem. Working out which mechanism produced it, deciding whether arriving demand or produced turnover fits better, and doing all of that while the window is still open are harder, and they have their own section.
The mechanisms that generate sudden turnover, how to tell arriving demand from produced turnover, and a triage sequence for reading a live spike without being pulled into it.
Open the sectionHow the six classes are defined, what evidence each one requires before it can be used, the sentences this desk will not write, and the four bands confidence is expressed in.
Open the method noteWho writes these notes, what the desk covers and refuses to cover, and why a frequency that has not been measured is printed here as unknown rather than estimated.
Read about the desk