01Causes
What causes sudden activity
A catalogue of the mechanisms that put turnover on a pair in minutes: visibility events, pool and migration plumbing, holder redistribution, routing traffic, produced flow and alert echo.
Open the watch noteCauses: what actually puts activity on a pair
Six classes is a vocabulary, not an explanation. This section is about the mechanisms underneath: what has to physically happen on chain for turnover to jump within minutes, which of those mechanisms leave a durable trace and which leave none at all.
It also covers the two questions that arrive with every live spike. Is this arriving demand or produced turnover, and what should a reader do in the next twenty minutes. The second question is answered as a procedure, because a procedure written in advance is the only thing that reliably survives contact with a moving chart.
- What this section answers
- The mechanisms that generate sudden turnover, the tells that separate demand from production, and a written triage sequence.
- What it will not do
- Tell anyone to buy or sell, rank tokens, or convert a classification into an expectation about price.
- Where it hands off
- The definition of each class and the fields behind it sit in Surges; evidence standards and confidence wording sit in the method note.
3 watch notes in this section
The mechanisms that generate sudden turnover, how to tell arriving demand from produced turnover, and a triage sequence for reading a live spike without being pulled into it.
02Comparison
Telling demand from production
Arriving demand and produced turnover share a headline number and differ almost everywhere else. Twelve tells, the innocent explanation attached to each, and why no tell is a verdict.
Open the watch note03Procedure
Reacting without being baited
A twenty-minute triage for a live spike: what to read in the first two minutes, what to refuse to do at all, and how to write the note so a later review can tell whether the reading was any good.
Open the watch noteWhere the causes section stops
Every mechanism described here is a candidate explanation rather than a diagnosis. The record shows what accounts did, never why anyone instructed them, so the output of this section is a shortlist of live explanations and the evidence that would remove one of them from it.
Surges
What a spike is, how it is classified, and the one divergence that separates a surge in turnover from a surge in demand. These notes describe the shape of the event itself.
Open the sectionMethod
How the six classes are defined, what evidence each one requires before it can be used, the sentences this desk will not write, and the four bands confidence is expressed in.
Open the method noteThe desk
Who writes these notes, what the desk covers and refuses to cover, and why a frequency that has not been measured is printed here as unknown rather than estimated.
Read about the desk